The 2025 NFL season has thrown everyone for a loop as we head into November. Week after week, supposed conference favorites stumble while dark horses gallop ahead, making Super Bowl predictions feel like throwing darts blindfolded. The MVP conversation? Just as chaotic. But here’s where things get interesting: on the latest episode of The Athletic Football Show, analysts Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen make a compelling case for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold as an unlikely MVP contender.
Breaking Down Darnold’s Statistical Impact
Sure, Darnold as an MVP candidate might make you do a double-take, but the numbers don’t lie. Seattle currently boasts the NFL’s best passing DVOA, and Darnold sits comfortably among the top three quarterbacks in multiple key metrics: passer rating, expected points added (EPA) per dropback, and completion percentage over expected. He’s actually leading the league in yards per attempt, which speaks volumes about his aggressive yet precise approach.
What’s particularly striking is how Darnold operates when the pocket breaks down. His scrambling ability has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Current projections have him hitting 4,400 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, and a mere 10 interceptions by season’s end. When you consider Seattle’s running game has been about as reliable as a broken clock, Darnold’s consistency becomes even more impressive. His play has single-handedly kept the Seahawks atop the NFC West.
The Question of Talent vs. System
Here’s where things get tricky. While MVP frontrunners like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or surprise candidate Jonathan Taylor are seen as pure difference-makers who elevate their teams through raw talent, Darnold faces the age-old question: is he the engine or just along for the ride?
Robert Mays doesn’t mince words about this dilemma. \”Seattle has done an excellent job of putting opposing defenses in base formations, utilizing play action, and generally simplifying the passing game for their quarterback,\” he explains. \”So, it’s always tough to evaluate a quarterback completely separate from those circumstances. But if you try to look beyond all that, Darnold has genuinely played very well.\”
Comparing to Past ‘System’ Quarterbacks
Even if we grant that Seattle’s offensive scheme gives Darnold some advantages, that doesn’t automatically disqualify him from MVP consideration. Remember 2018 Jared Goff? He rode the Rams’ system all the way to serious MVP discussions. While Darnold’s straight dropback numbers might look pedestrian, his excellence in specific areas tells a different story. His mastery of quick-release throws, play action, and outside-the-pocket passes ranks among the elite.
Derrik Klassen makes a crucial distinction here. \”For previous ‘super scheme’ quarterbacks like early Jared Goff or Tua Tagovailoa, once the play fell apart, the magic ended. Their success was heavily dependent on the system. Darnold, while maybe not at Josh Allen’s level physically, is making impressive, high-quality plays when things don’t go as planned.\”
Deep Throws and Play Action Prowess
Want to talk about eye-popping stats? Darnold’s crushing the competition with a ridiculous 150.6 passer rating on deep passes (throws 20+ yards downfield). That’s not a typo. His EPA per dropback on play action passes trails only Lamar Jackson, and get this: he’s averaging over 15 yards in the air per play action attempt—roughly four yards better than any other quarterback.
Mays puts it perfectly: \”He’s producing as many big-play throws as any NFL quarterback in 2025. Structural support might help, but the combination of spectacular plays and consistent execution on every snap makes his performance unique among his peers this season. Only a handful of quarterbacks can match that blend right now.\”
Image caption: Sam Darnold’s performance has kept the Seahawks’ offense afloat despite a shaky running game this season.
Photo credit: Greg Fiume / Getty
