Week 9 delivered a sobering reality check across the NFL as four of ESPN’s premier Super Bowl candidates—the Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions—each walked away with losses. With Philadelphia enjoying their bye week, every remaining top-tier team now carries at least two defeats on their record, marking the first time since 2010 that the playoff picture has been this muddled at this stage.
Kansas City Chiefs: Buffalo’s Defense Exposes Familiar Flaws
Week 9 result: Lost 28-21 at home against the Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl win probability before Week 9: 15.2%
After Week 9: 11.1%
The Chiefs’ pattern of tight losses reached four games this season, but this defeat felt different. While the final score suggested another nail-biter, Buffalo controlled the narrative for most of Sunday afternoon. The Bills’ pass rush harassed Patrick Mahomes on more than half his dropbacks, forcing the superstar quarterback to complete fewer than 50% of his attempts—a career-worst percentage that speaks volumes about the pressure he faced.
Buffalo’s offseason investment in pass rush talent, highlighted by acquisitions like Joey Bosa, created constant chaos in Kansas City’s backfield. What made this particularly troubling for the Chiefs was how Buffalo generated pressure without exotic blitz packages, relying instead on their front four to wreak havoc.
The Chiefs’ offensive line struggles reached a breaking point. Despite significant offseason spending, the protection simply wasn’t there. Jaylon Moore had a rough day filling in for the injured Josh Simmons, while Trey Smith clearly wasn’t at full strength. Without Isiah Pacheco providing explosiveness in the backfield, Kansas City’s ground game stagnated.
Andy Reid’s decision to settle for a field goal on 4th-and-goal late in the first half raised eyebrows—a choice that analytics suggested cost the Chiefs valuable win probability. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s strategic shift toward more under-center formations allowed Josh Allen to exploit Kansas City’s defensive weaknesses, setting up what could be a fascinating AFC Championship rematch come January.
Indianapolis Colts: Jones’ Five-Turnover Meltdown Derails Promising Performance
Week 9 result: Lost 27-20 on the road to the Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl win probability before Week 9: 13.0%
After Week 9: 10.1%
Daniel Jones entered Week 9 riding a wave of MVP-caliber performances, but Pittsburgh’s defense brought him crashing back to earth. Five turnovers—three picks and two fumbles—against a Steelers unit that had been surprisingly vulnerable all season represents the kind of collapse that can haunt a quarterback’s confidence.
The Colts showed early promise, converting multiple fourth-down attempts and dictating the pace of play. But Jones’ mistakes handed Pittsburgh short fields and easy scoring opportunities. The Steelers capitalized by stuffing Jonathan Taylor (45 yards on 14 carries) and forcing Indianapolis into predictable passing situations.
Pittsburgh’s pass rush, anchored by Alex Highsmith, relentlessly hunted Jones, dropping him five times behind the line of scrimmage. The quarterback’s mobility—usually a weapon—became a liability as the Steelers’ defensive front closed off escape routes. This performance exposed how dependent the Colts remain on offensive balance to keep opposing defenses guessing.
Green Bay Packers: Red Zone Failures Cost Close Contest
Week 9 result: Lost 16-13 at home to the Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl win probability before Week 9: 11.0%
After Week 9: 6.1%
Green Bay’s stumble against Carolina had the feel of a classic trap game—the kind of loss that can define a season’s trajectory. The Panthers controlled the ground game through Rico Dowdle, who bulldozed his way to 130 rushing yards while eating up precious clock time. Both teams managed just seven possessions apiece, turning every drive into a premium opportunity.
The Packers moved the ball with relative ease between the 20s but couldn’t punch it home when it mattered most. Multiple red zone stalls forced them to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns—a difference that proved decisive in this low-scoring affair.
The injury to standout tight end Tucker Kraft, who suffered a torn ACL, compounds Green Bay’s problems. Kraft’s versatility in short-yardage situations and as a red zone target will be sorely missed. The team must now adapt their offensive schemes around a more conventional passing approach.
Some observers are drawing parallels to the 2010 Packers, who overcame midseason adversity to capture a championship. But that comparison only holds water if Jordan Love can find the consistency that has eluded him in recent weeks.
Detroit Lions: Minnesota’s Rebuilt Defense Stifles Ground Attack
Week 9 result: Lost 27-24 on the road to the Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl win probability before Week 9: 8.7%
After Week 9: 5.4%
Detroit’s grip on the NFC North loosened as Minnesota’s retooled defensive line, featuring key additions Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, neutralized the Lions’ rushing attack. The dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery managed just 65 combined yards on 20 carries—a performance that lacked the explosive plays Detroit has relied upon all season.
With their ground game bottled up, Jared Goff found himself in an uncomfortable dropback-heavy game script. Minnesota’s defensive scheme, particularly their interior rush, collapsed the pocket repeatedly, resulting in five sacks and constant pressure that threw off Detroit’s timing.
On the other side, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy continued his development in just his third career start. While he threw two touchdown passes, he also tossed an interception and absorbed five sacks. His efficiency numbers remain inconsistent, but McCarthy showed flashes of poise when the pocket collapsed around him.
Detroit now faces critical decisions ahead of the trade deadline. With the NFC North suddenly wide open, the Lions need to evaluate potential roster additions that could shore up their weaknesses and help them maintain their divisional lead.
