The NFL wrapped up an eventful Week 9 followed by a hectic trade deadline. Here’s a breakdown of the key storylines from the latest Quick Outs:
- Patrick Mahomes’ challenging day facing the Bills’ dime defense.
- Talanoa Hufanga’s growing influence on Denver’s defense.
- A measured take on the hype surrounding J.J. McCarthy.
- A detailed look at Payton Wilson’s interception.
Let’s dive into the analysis.
Patrick Mahomes vs. the Bills’ Dime Package
Patrick Mahomes had been riding high since the Chiefs stumbled out of the gate at 0-2. Blending the steady, methodical approach he displayed during 2022-2024 with those jaw-dropping plays that defined his early years, Mahomes looked virtually unstoppable again.
The Buffalo Bills had other plans, though. They threw a wrench into Kansas City’s machinery with their aggressive use of dime defense, putting six defensive backs on the field for 45.6% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps — the most extensive deployment of this package in any Bills game since Sean McDermott became head coach. What’s striking? Buffalo completely abandoned base defense (four defensive backs) for the entire contest.
This speed-focused approach created real headaches for the Chiefs’ offense. Mahomes found himself scrambling to find answers against a defensive strategy that seemed to anticipate his every move.
Chiefs’ Offensive Struggles
Kansas City’s attack hit two major roadblocks:
1. Overreliance on downfield shots without setting up play-action
The Chiefs kept trying to connect on deep balls without using play fakes, instead leaning on straight dropbacks and hoping five or six blockers could handle Buffalo’s pass rush. That gamble backfired more often than not, with Mahomes getting pressured on six deep attempts. Even when he delivered pinpoint throws — like that near-touchdown dart to Tyquan Thornton late in the game — the completions just wouldn’t come.
2. Ineffective quick passing
The Chiefs couldn’t establish any rhythm with their short game. Mahomes’ first quick pass found Hollywood Brown’s hands over the middle, only to see it hit the turf. From that point, Buffalo’s secondary — with safety Cole Bishop making his presence felt — stepped up in tight coverage, breaking up short routes and throwing Kansas City’s usual offensive rhythm completely off balance.
While this showing didn’t indicate any decline in Mahomes’ talents, it exposed potential vulnerabilities for the Chiefs when facing teams willing to consistently deploy lighter defensive personnel dedicated to stopping the pass.
Talanoa Hufanga Emerging as a Defensive Force in Denver
Talanoa Hufanga is steadily working his way into a crucial spot within Vance Joseph’s defensive framework. His performance against the Texans represented his strongest showing this season and showcased exactly what he brings to the table.
According to Next Gen Stats, Hufanga topped all defensive backs with six \”stops\”—tackles that create negative expected points added (EPA) for the offense. Early on, he demolished a running play right at the line of scrimmage, then later tracked down a ball carrier to prevent a potential goal-line score.
Hufanga also shined in pass coverage, keeping Texans’ tight ends and running backs in check with minimal yardage allowed. Key moments included bottling up Harrison Bryant on a boot-action play for a short gain and completely shutting down Woody Marks on a crucial third-and-4. His speed and growing confidence showed up clearly, especially in his two pass breakups — one of which came dangerously close to becoming an interception.
Denver’s expectations for Hufanga are starting to pay dividends with this kind of production. While the Texans’ offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, the defensive back’s upward trajectory looks promising.
Cooling Off the J.J. McCarthy Hype
Winning has a way of making flaws disappear from memory, particularly when it comes to young quarterbacks. While defending a rookie signal-caller through rough patches or losses comes naturally, the growing excitement around J.J. McCarthy could use some perspective.
The Vikings stand at 2-1 with McCarthy under center, and he’s delivered some impressive moments. But digging deeper into his performance reveals some worrying trends, even by rookie standards in early career appearances.
McCarthy, now in his second year with just three starts behind him, falls short when measured against 72 quarterbacks since 2016 who made their first three starts and threw over 60 passes in their initial two seasons. His rankings per TruMedia data paint a concerning picture:
- 63rd in EPA per dropback (-0.37; average -0.11)
- 57th in dropback success rate (33.8%; average 40.5%)
- 70th in sack rate (17.5%; average 8.5%)
- 68th in pressure-to-sack rate (38.9%; average 21.9%)
Only Jared Goff, who battled through tough times on a struggling Rams squad, managed to keep a starting role with comparable numbers. McCarthy’s accuracy problems, struggles reading blitzes, and hesitant decision-making were on full display against the Lions — missed crossing routes and repeated timing mishaps with his running back told the story.
While McCarthy’s popularity connects to team victories, his individual showing remains very much a work in progress, which should temper expectations about his rapid ascent.
Breakdown of Payton Wilson’s Interception
Daniel Jones suffered through a brutal afternoon against the Steelers, dealing with relentless pressure, turnovers, and sacks. His interception to Payton Wilson, though, stemmed more from situational circumstances than a completely poor read.
Before the snap, tight end Tyler Warren shifted across the formation with nickel corner Jalen Ramsey trailing him—a clear sign of man coverage. Jones expected Wilson to cover Jonathan Taylor on his route out of the backfield, assuming Taylor would draw Wilson away and create a clean throwing window to Josh Downs.
But Taylor got held up by a chip block from T.J. Watt and couldn’t clear his route quickly enough. This gave Wilson time to ease off his initial assignment and read Jones, putting himself in perfect position within the throwing lane. Jones’ pass landed right in Wilson’s breadbasket for the interception.
This play demonstrates how even minor timing disruptions and positional details can completely flip outcomes, reminding us that quarterbacks don’t always operate with perfect information about coverage schemes.
Derrik Klassen is a Staff Writer for The Athletic focused on the NFL and co-host of The Athletic Football Show. He is based in California.
