Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season brings a fascinating slate despite six teams taking their bye weeks. Eleven games await, each carrying its own intrigue and opportunity. Here’s what our NFL analysts are watching closely, from statistical advantages to fantasy gold mines and potential surprises.
Key Statistical Trends to Watch This Weekend
Can the Patriots Exploit the Browns’ Middle Defense?
New England’s aerial attack has been surgical this season, posting the league’s second-best EPA per dropback. The Patriots love working the middle of the field—56% of their passes target that sweet spot between the numbers, ranking them second in the NFL for this tendency. Cleveland, though, presents a different puzzle. The Browns defense deliberately funnels action away from the middle, limiting opponents to just 43% of their targets in that area—the second-lowest rate league-wide.
When teams do test Cleveland’s middle defense, they run into a brick wall. The Browns hold opponents to negative EPA and successful plays on only 54% of those snaps, good for fourth-best in the league. This sets up a classic chess match: can New England stick to what works, or will Cleveland force them into uncomfortable territory?
Will the Steelers Contain Micah Parsons’ Pass Rush?
Wait, there’s some confusion here—Micah Parsons actually suits up for Dallas, not Green Bay, but his impact remains undeniable. The star edge rusher brings 5.5 sacks and a menacing 26.1% pass rush win rate into this weekend, third-best among all pass rushers. His typical target? Pittsburgh’s left tackle Broderick Jones, whose 78% pass block win rate sits uncomfortably near the bottom among qualifying tackles.
With the Cowboys expected to control game flow as favorites, Parsons could feast on his former teammate Aaron Rodgers. But Rodgers hasn’t survived this long without adapting—his lightning-quick release averages just 2.63 seconds, and his modest 4.8% sack rate suggests he’s mastered the art of escape. Predictive models give Parsons a 52% chance of notching at least one sack, ranking him second among all players this week.
Can the Bears Disrupt Derrick Henry’s Running Game?
Derrick Henry has been boom-or-bust this season, crossing 100 rushing yards twice while struggling between those breakout performances. Lamar Jackson’s expected return could unlock Baltimore’s ground game at the perfect time. Chicago’s defense presents an inviting matchup—they’ve allowed a staggering 2.3 yards after contact per carry, worst in the NFL.
The Bears’ struggles become even more pronounced on outside zone concepts, where they’re surrendering nearly 6 yards per attempt. Baltimore runs outside zone on almost half their rushing plays, creating a potentially explosive mismatch. All signs point toward Henry finding plenty of running room.
Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target
Cade Otton (TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — 36% Rostered
Otton has quietly become Baker Mayfield’s security blanket, hauling in 15 catches over the past two weeks while consistently reaching double-digit fantasy scoring. He led Tampa Bay receivers in Week 7 with seven grabs for 65 yards. With Mike Evans sidelined and Chris Godwin Jr.’s status uncertain, Otton’s target share should remain robust against a Saints defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack.
Troy Franklin (WR, Denver Broncos) — 34.2% Rostered
Franklin saw a season-high 10 targets last week, signaling growing trust from the coaching staff. While his production remained modest—three catches, 19 yards, and a score—Dallas has been generous to opposing receivers, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. Franklin could surpass his season-best performance in what shapes up as a favorable matchup.
Tez Johnson (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — 29.9% Rostered
Back-to-back touchdown performances have Johnson trending upward. He’s compiled 162 yards and two scores on just nine receptions over three weeks—remarkable efficiency. Johnson appears locked in as one of Mayfield’s preferred targets, especially against a Saints secondary that’s been vulnerable to receivers finding the end zone.
Kyle Monangai (RB, Chicago Bears) — 26.3% Rostered
Monangai delivered his finest showing recently, posting 17.4 fantasy points on 15 touches. Chicago seems committed to a backfield timeshare between him and D’Andre Swift, echoing successful dual-back systems from years past. Baltimore’s run defense has been porous, surrendering the second-most fantasy points to running backs—a recipe for Monangai to maintain his upward trajectory.
Joe Flacco (QB, Cincinnati Bengals) — 23.1% Rostered
Flacco has breathed new life into Cincinnati’s passing attack, tossing 561 yards and five touchdowns without an interception across two starts. His veteran savvy and rapid decision-making have elevated Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to new heights. With several teams on bye and the Jets looming, Flacco represents solid streaming value.
Potential Week 8 Surprises
Bijan Robinson (RB, Atlanta Falcons) appears destined to crack the 100-yard barrier against Miami’s porous run defense. The Dolphins surrender an NFL-worst 159 rushing yards per game, and Robinson already owns two century marks this season. This matchup screams breakout performance.
Alec Pierce (WR, Indianapolis Colts) might finally break his touchdown drought against Tennessee. Pierce averages nearly 20 yards per catch, possessing the deep speed to exploit a Titans secondary weakened by L’Jarius Sneed’s IR placement. The pieces are aligning for Pierce’s first score of 2025.
Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) could capitalize on Spencer Rattler’s recent turnover troubles. The young Saints quarterback has struggled with ball security, while Tampa Bay’s defense ranks among the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rates. Expect Winfield to create a game-changing takeaway.
Top Betting Pick for Week 8
Chicago Bears +6.5 over Baltimore Ravens
Turnover differential tells a compelling story here. Chicago leads the entire league with a +11 margin, while Baltimore languishes near the bottom at -7. Both teams prefer similar tempos and run-heavy approaches, but this 18-possession swing in ball security could prove decisive.
The Bears must continue protecting the football while capitalizing on short fields created by their opportunistic defense. Baltimore’s offense tends to sputter when Lamar Jackson commits errors, and Chicago has shown remarkable ability to force turnovers. This fundamental gap in ball control makes the Bears an attractive bet to cover what should be a closely contested affair.
