The AFC playoff picture is taking an unexpected turn this season. While everyone’s eyes remain glued to the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots have emerged as legitimate front-runners for the AFC’s top seed, based on the latest NFL Playoff Simulator data.
AFC’s Shifting Power Dynamic
For nearly a decade and a half—from 2003 through 2017—the AFC postseason belonged to two iconic quarterbacks: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. During 13 of those 15 seasons, their respective teams either claimed the conference’s No. 1 seed or hosted the championship game. Often, they managed both feats in the same year.
When Patrick Mahomes stepped into Kansas City’s starting role in 2018, the Chiefs picked up where those dynasties left off. Over seven seasons, Kansas City has either secured the AFC’s top seed or hosted the conference title game six times, with four campaigns delivering both honors.
With the Chiefs scheduled to battle the Bills—Josh Allen’s powerhouse squad—in a crucial Week 9 showdown, most observers expect the AFC storyline to continue centering around these two elite signal-callers.
Surprising Leaders Emerge in the Standings
Current playoff projections paint a different picture, though. The Indianapolis Colts sit comfortably atop the AFC at 7-1, boasting a commanding 41% probability of claiming the conference’s No. 1 seed. The New England Patriots follow at 19%, while the much-discussed Chiefs and Bills trail at 16% and 13%, respectively.
This ranking persists despite advanced metrics suggesting Kansas City and Buffalo possess superior rosters compared to Indianapolis and New England. The Colts currently lead the entire league in EPA (Expected Points Added) per offensive play—their margin over the second-place team equals the gap between that squad and whoever ranks seventh.
Daniel Jones deserves considerable praise for guiding Indianapolis to one of the NFL’s most well-rounded and productive offensive attacks. Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye ranks third league-wide in EPA per dropback, outperforming established stars like Jared Goff, Allen, and even Mahomes.
Early Schedule Advantages Fuel Current Success
The primary driver behind the Colts and Patriots’ current standings? Relatively favorable scheduling through the season’s opening weeks. Indianapolis has battled the third-weakest collection of opponents so far, while New England has faced the easiest path of any AFC team.
This doesn’t diminish either franchise’s achievements—the simulation model still places both squads within the NFL’s elite tier. But facing weaker competition has certainly contributed to their impressive early-season records.
The upcoming Bills-Chiefs clash carries significant weight for both teams’ championship aspirations. The losing side would see their top-seed chances plummet to just 5%. A tie would damage both squads’ prospects equally. Curiously, this game’s outcome barely affects Indianapolis’s odds while reducing New England’s chances by a mere 3%, regardless of the victor.
Key Games Could Reshape the Race
Should Kansas City defeat Buffalo and then knock off the Colts in Week 12, followed by the Bills toppling the Patriots in Week 15, the Chiefs’ No. 1 seed probability would skyrocket to approximately 40%. Buffalo could achieve similar 38% odds by winning both critical matchups.
These potential scenarios underscore how head-to-head meetings between top contenders could dramatically alter the playoff landscape, providing clear pathways for the Chiefs and Bills to reclaim their expected positions atop the conference.
Schedule Strength Swings Both Ways Moving Forward
Looking ahead, the Colts face the second-toughest remaining schedule, while the Patriots enjoy the second-easiest path. New England also benefits from their early-season victory in Buffalo, creating additional breathing room in potential tiebreaker scenarios.
Despite these scheduling differences, Indianapolis maintains a slight advantage in current projections. The Colts hold a one-game lead over the Patriots and rate as a marginally superior team overall—roughly a one-point favorite on neutral turf.
Familiar Names Reclaiming the Spotlight
While most analysts focus on the Mahomes-Allen rivalry as the defining narrative of this AFC generation, the Colts and Patriots—two organizations that thrived during the Brady-Manning era—appear ready to reassert themselves as legitimate championship contenders.
Based on both their current performance metrics and favorable positioning, Indianapolis and New England look primed to make significant playoff pushes this season, potentially disrupting the expected Chiefs-Bills duopoly many predicted would dominate the AFC landscape.
