On the heels of a 12-4 season, the Monsters of the Midway have made it a point of emphasis this offseason to continue the development of Matt Nagy’s West Coast offense.
While their dominant defense was much to thank for their first place finish in the NFC North, there are hopes that a second full offseason learning Nagy’s playbook can help their offense (just 21st in total yards in 2018), particularly the passing game, achieve new heights.
While much of their 2019 success hinges on the continual development of QB Mitchell Trubisky, a big campaign from WR Allen Robinson could really help speed up the entire process.
In his first year in navy and orange, Robinson showed flashes of what the Bears envisioned when they inked him to a three-year, $42 million deal in March of 2018. In 12 games, he managed to catch over 58 percent of his targets en route to 754 yards and 4 touchdowns. If you stretch that out over a 16-game span, he would’ve totaled just over 1,000 receiving yards (1,005 to be exact).
Over or Under: 1,000 receiving yards in 2019?
As health has remained a concern for Robinson, perhaps this is the year he can stay on the field and return to his Pro-Bowl form by hitting the 1,000-yard threshold.
At this time last season, Robinson participated offseason activities in limited fashion as he rehabbed a torn ACL, an injury that robbed him of most of his 2017 season. An entire offseason at full health digesting Nagy’s playbook could prove to be just what he needed to return to his 1,400-yard, 14 touchdown self this year.
Luckily for Robinson, he’s had plenty of time this spring to get his body right and build chemistry with his QB and will come into Week 1 at full strength for the first time in two years. It was reported by earlier this March that the two worked on their games together in Huntington Beach, California.
Already Trubisky’s favorite target, Robinson even stated that he feels like the offense is already “years ahead” of where they were last year.
Robinson seems to believe big things are in store for their offensive attack with Trubisky calling the shots. JJ Stankevitz, reporter NBC Sports Chicago, tweeted the wideout’s most recent comments last Thursday.
#Bears WR Allen Robinson today after practice: "We're not out here to just manage the game or anything like that. We're trying to score points. We're trying to be the best offense in the NFL."
— JJ Stankevitz (@JJStankevitz) June 13, 2019
When looking back at the history of the Andy Reid coaching tree, it’s not inconceivable that this offense can take massive strides in Year 2 of the Nagy regime.
Eagles’ HC Doug Pederson, also a former Kansas City assistant, took Philadelphia in 2017 from the 22nd best offense (5,398 yards) in his first season as head coach to seventh-best (5,852 yards) in his second year. A complex system as has been shown, the playbook Nagy brought with him to Chicago isn’t one that can be learned overnight. Based off early offseason reports and comments from Nagy himself, the second-year leap from Robinson and Co. seems inevitable.
The Verdict: Over
Although his statistics from a season ago don’t exactly jump off the page, they undermine how well he actually played in 2018.
At 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, Robinson is amongst the best in the game when it comes to beating contested coverage.
According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson finished 2018 with the fourth-highest contested catch rate of any WR. PFF even awarded him a grade of 74.7, the highest of any Bears starter on offense last year.
Although not the speediest pass-catcher, he’s a crisp route runner that uses his long frame to separate himself from defenders. For this reason, he was still a sufficient vertical threat in 2018, reeling-in 45 percent of deep passes that were sent his way (ninth-best in the NFL).
Indeed, his ability to surpass 1,000 yards this year will partly fall on Trubisky’s shoulders. While the young gunslinger admittedly has his flaws, it must be remembered that Robinson’s illustrious 2015 campaign came with Blake Bortles throwing him the ball. Robinson’s production should remain consistent if Trubisky can take even the slightest step forward.
Some may have forgotten what the once-elite receiver is capable of, but their memories will likely be jogged once No. 12 hits the field this fall.
I think that A Rob will have less than 1,000 yards receiving this year, and this is the reason why.
Forget stats here, and how PFF, ESPN, Fox Sports or anyone else can throw up to back up their claims that he does this a specific % of the time, roles, players and situations change constantly in the NFL, and so they can be good to see if a player is improving in certain areas and struggling in others as the season wears on to the many coaches on the payroll, it is not what I would be gauging any conclusions on for my prediction.
The reason and sole reason I say this, is that yes, it is the 2nd year of the Nagy system for this team, the 2nd season together for Trubisky and A Rob playing together as team-mates, and hopefully this season we get a full 16 game production from the pair of them, but we are not just about Mitch and Robinson.
When you throw in (pardon the pun) the likes of Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller (will be even more healthier this season than last), Riley Ridley and Cordarelle Patterson will all also be wanting to see the ball going their way throughout the season to a larger degree than it did last year (two newcomers getting more targets than Josh Bellamy and Javon Wims managed last season I expect), and that we are a “balanced” offense, in that we run as much as pass, and even the runners are required to catch the ball a lot, see Tarik Cohen as an example last season, then you throw in Mike Davis (better option than either Benny Cunningham or Taquan Mizzell) and a back who has the skill set to flourish in this system, hence why we drafted him in David Montgomery, there is simply far too much firepower and attacking threat there, for the Bears, Trubisky or even Matt Nagy to lean over 50% of the eyes to one individual, no matter how great he was in his rookie season with Blake Bortles throwing him the ball.
For me, when you have that kind of threat, talent to use, and gamechanging ability playmakers in the firing line then no 1 man is going to be getting 1,000 yards receiving, as our QB is not and will not be having numbers like 4,000+ passing yards, we didn’t even manage that as a team last season and there is more mouths to feed this year than there was last.
Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Patterson, Ridley, Montgomery, Cohen, Davis, Burton, Shaheen and even Wims (if he gets suited up ever again now) will all be involved throughout the season, and will all be wanting to get involved enough to contribute sufficiently to any success we get this campaign…….if we get similar team passing yards this season to last, then from just them players above listed, the average works out at 340.6 yards each!!
Verdict for me: Under, but not by that much (I expect 800-900 yards for Robinson this season)